WEEK 4 Picks: First Mover Advantage

Posted: October 2, 2011 by Keith Stone in 2011 NFL Picks, football, NFL

This is the time in the NFL season to really take advantage of the lines. If you’re smart enough to figure out which teams are good and which are bad, you can make a lot of money or get a nice lead in your picks league. Most people are idiots and still haven’t figured out that, say, the Browns aren’t very good. As a result, last week the lines were a bit high so if you took the underdogs, it would have paid off in a big way. Remember: if you think two teams are shity, just take the underdog if they’re getting more than a few points. Eventually, everyone will figure it out and the lines will be harder to read but you still have a few weeks.

It’s like Apple. Sure, the iPod, iTunes, and iPhone are great but it’s not so much the products themselves; it’s the fact the Apple knew where mobile technology was going and got there first. I got to where the NFL is heading first with 12 wins last week. Let’s see if I keep my first mover advantage or go the way of Blockbuster. Here’s the picks:

LIONS AT COWBOYS (-1.5)
Stone: Lions
I hope Suh sits on Romo.

Rodave: Cowboys

Rory: Lions
I never understood why they settled at half points as the fraction of choice.  They could just easily use 0.25 or 0.75.  For this game, I have Lions by +1.637.

DP Animal: Lions
Still waiting for the other shoe to fall, but Stafford and Megatron vs. that banged-up ‘Boys secondary?

Phanatic: Lions

SAINTS (-6.5) AT JAGUARS
Stone: Saints
The Saints are very good. The Jags are very bad.

Rodave: Saints

Rory: Saints

DP Animal: Saints

Phanatic: Saints

49ERS AT DREAM TEAM (-8.5)
Stone: Dream Team
Four words: last place Dream Team.

Rodave: Dream Team
Uhhh, this team is supposed to be good. I swear.

Rory: 49ers

DP Animal: Dream Team
I’ll refer you to the NFC West preview: Alex Smith isn’t good.

Phanatic: 49ers
Must win for the Eagles. Philly fans are already debating not watching this even though the phillies play that night.

REDSKINS (-1.5) AT RAMS
Stone: Rams
The Rams are going to have to win one someday.

Rodave: Rams

Rory: Redskins

DP Animal: Redskins
I’ll refer you to the NFC West preview: Sam Bradford isn’t good.

Phanatic: Rams

TITANS AT BROWNS (PICK)
Stone: Titans
The Browns are terrible while the Titans are merely lousy.

Rodave: Titans

Rory: Titans

DP Animal: Browns
Without Kenny Britt, the Matt Hasselbeck Rejuvenation Tour grinds to a halt.

Phanatic: Browns

BILLS (-3.5) AT BENGALS
Stone: Bengals
Letdown game, and the Bengals have a fairly good defense.

Rodave: Bills

Rory: Bills
Go Bills!  They are currently the third team I’d be most happy to see win a Super Bowl this year.

DP Animal: Bills
I believe!

Phanatic: Bills
4-0 Bills!!! The apocalypse…

VIKINGS (-1.5) AT CHIEFS
Stone: Vikings
Take the Chiefs in the second half.

Rodave: Vikings

Rory: Vikings
I trashed the Chiefs line last week.  From now on, I’m not going to pre-emptively brag about winning a pick.

DP Animal: Vikings
Finally, a team bad enough that the Vikings won’t be able to collapse in the second half.

Phanatic: Vikings

PANTHERS AT BEARS (-5.5)
Stone: Bears
I was going to take the Panthers but then everybody and their mom started picking them. Red flag!

Rodave: Bears

Rory: Panthers

DP Animal: Bears

Phanatic: Panthers

STEELERS AT TEXANS (-3.5)
Stone: Texans
Super Bowl hangover, and the Steeler O-line is in shambles. Mario Williams will have a field day.

Rodave: Texans

Rory: Texans

DP Animal: Steelers
Not sure about either team, so I’m taking the points.

Phanatic: Steelers

FALCONS (-4.5) AT SEAHAWKS
Stone: Falcons
The Falcons need to get it going.

Rodave: Falcons

Rory: Falcons

DP Animal: Falcons
I’ll refer you to the NFC West preview: Tarvaris Jackson isn’t good.

Phanatic: Falcons

GIANTS (-0.5) AT CARDINALS
Stone: Giants
The G-Men have a fairly good track record at this stadium.

Rodave: Giants

Rory: Giants
My girlfriend is from Arizona, and is thus a die-soft Cardinals fan.  I found a problem during the Nets/Suns games – she handles winning well (doesn’t brag), and I handle losing well (I shrug it off).  However, I’m an obnoxious winner, and she doesn’t like losing.  So, if the Giants win, I may be single.  Which is why I’m picking them in this contest – I may lose a girlfriend, but at least that’s one win for Keith’s contest!

DP Animal: Giants
I’ll refer you to the NFC West preview: Kevin Kolb isn’t good.

Phanatic: Giants

DOLPHINS AT CHARGERS (-6.5)
Stone: Chargers
It’s October now. Take the Bolts.

Rodave: Chargers

Rory: Chargers

DP Animal: Chargers

Phanatic: Chargers

BRONCOS AT PACKERS (-12.5)
Stone: Packers
Prediction: pain.

Rodave: Packers

Rory: Broncos

DP Animal: Packers

Phanatic: Broncos

PATRIOTS (-3.5) AT RAIDERS
Stone: Patriots

Rodave: Patriots

Rory: Patriots
Red Sox Nation proves once again to be full of cry-babies.  A Red Sox fan IM-ed me the morning after they lost, asking me not to mention baseball.  I’ve never talked about baseball to him before, but I had to say something now that I was explicited warned not to.  After some harmless links, he began sobbing over the interwebs that I was being mean.  Trash-talking is part of sports, kids.

DP Animal: Patriots

Phanatic: Patriots
They’ll be back on track thanks to Brady’s new haircut.

JETS AT RAVENS (-3.5)
Stone: Ravens
Fine, I’ll say it. Mark Sanchez is the reason the Jets will never get over the top.

Rodave: Ravens

Rory: Jets
Speaking of whiny fanbases, are the any Jets fans still left on the bandwagon after last week’s loss?

DP Animal: Jets

Phanatic: Jets
10 to 6.

COLTS AT BUCCANEERS (-9.5)
Stone: Buccaneers

Rodave: Buccaneers

Rory: Colts

DP Animal: Buccaneers
How excited are you to have the Colts on national television four more times this year?

Phanatic: Buccaneers
The Bucs should frame this line and save it forever.

CURRENT RECORDS
Stone: 30-16 (Last week: 12-4)
Rory: 25-21 (9-7)
Phanatic: 23-23 (9-7)
Rodave: 20-26 (5-11)
DP Animal: 20-26 (7-9)

Last Week’s Picks

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